Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold Forecast and News
Gold price sticks to negative bias, remains close to multi-month peak set on Wednesday
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed through the first half of the European session on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to its highest level since early November touched the previous day.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, any subsequent slide is more likely to find decent support near the $2,625-2,620 strong horizontal resistance breakpoint, now turned support. Some follow-through selling could drag the Gold price to the $2,700 mark, which if broken decisively should pave the way for deeper losses. The XAU/USD might then fall towards the $2,665-2,662 area en route to the 2,627-2,622 confluence. The latter comprises the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a short-term ascending trend line, which, in turn, should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
On the flip side, the overnight swing high, around the $2,763-2,764 area, now seems to offer some resistance, above which the Gold price could aim to challenge the all-time peak, around the $2,790 region touched in October. This is closely followed by the $2,800 mark, which if conquered will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish trades and set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past month or so.
Fundamental Overview
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed through the first half of the European session on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to its highest level since early November touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) gains some positive traction for the second straight day and recovers further from the monthly low. This, along with a stable performance around the equity markets, turn out to be key factors undermining the safe-haven precious metal.
That said, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates twice this year keep a lid on the US Treasury bond yields, which, in turn, should cap the USD and offer some support to the non-yielding Gold price. Furthermore, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which could trigger trade wars and elevate market volatility, should help limit losses for the XAU/USD. This warrants caution before confirming that the one-month-old uptrend has run out of steam.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Weaker US Dollar keeps buyers hungry for the precious metal Premium
The corrective move in Gold remained well in place for yet another week, this time surpassing the $2,720 mark per troy ounce for the first time since mid-December, where an initial resistance zone appears to have emerged.
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METALS BULLISH THEMES
METALS BEARISH THEMES
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD hovers near 1.0400 as focus shifts to US data
EUR/USD trades listlessly near 1.0400 in the European session on Thursday. The pair stays defensive as US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the Eurozone. Further, ECB rate cut expectations also weigh on the major alongside fresh US Dollar demand ahead of US data.
GBP/USD turns lower to near 1.2300 as US Dollar stabilizes ahead of data
GBP/USD has come under renewed selling pressure and battles 1.2300 in the European trading hours on Thursday. The pair meets supply as the US Dollar stabilizes and traders digest US President Trump's tariff talks, gearing up for the mid-tier US economic data later in the day.
Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant amid positive risk tone; focus remains on BoJ
The Japanese Yen drifts lower for the second successive day against its American counterpart. A further recovery in the US bond yields underpins the USD and supports the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look to Trump’s speech for a fresh impetus ahead of the BoJ decision on Friday.
Gold price sticks to negative bias, remains close to multi-month peak set on Wednesday
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed through the first half of the European session on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to its highest level since early November touched the previous day.
WTI drops to near $75.00 due to uncertain potential impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs
WTI price depreciates due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs and energy policies. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose by 1 million barrels in the previous week. Trump threatened to impose "high levels" of sanctions and tariffs on Russian imports.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 XAU/USD forecast!
2025 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2025, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that geopolitical developments and Donald Trump’s policies are expected to influence Gold price in 2025. XAU/USD could meet the first support area at $2,530-$2,500, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the October 2023 to November 2024 uptrend and the psychological level align. On the upside, $2,900 (upper limit of the ascending regression channel) could act as the next resistance in case Gold rises to a new record high. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
It’s not an easy task to assign a direction for Gold in 2025 with high certainty. There are simply too many unknowns. Once Trump’s foreign and economic policies take shape, Gold’s outlook will become less cloudy. A strong Chinese economy, ongoing policy-easing by major central banks and a tense geopolitical environment could trigger another leg higher in XAU/USD prices.
If Trump’s policies fuel inflation and weigh on the global economy, Gold could come under pressure. Additional losses could be seen in case the geopolitical atmosphere becomes more favorable for risk trade.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
