Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold Forecast and News
Gold price hits fresh all-time peak in reaction to Trump's tariffs
Gold price spiked to a fresh record high on Thursday as investors grew increasingly concerned over the economic impact of Trump’s sweeping tariffs. This triggers a global risk-aversion trade and boosts the safe-haven bullion. Fed rate cut bets, declining US bond yields, and heavy USD selling benefits the non-yielding yellow metal.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
Again, this is a “parental advisory” just ahead of the main event for this Wednesday. With the primary tailwind for the Goldrush set to be officially announced, the “buy the rumour, sell the fact” rule of thumb should be considered. The risk could be that once the reciprocal tariffs take effect on Wednesday, only easing due to profit-taking in Gold could occur once separate trade agreements and partial unwinds take place.
On the upside, the daily R1 resistance at $3,141 is the first level to consider, followed by the $3,149 all-time high. Further up, the R2 resistance at $3,169 could still be targeted later in the day. Beyond that, the broader upside target stands at $3,200.
On the downside, the S1 support at $3,093 is quite far, though it could still be tested without completely erasing this week’s gains. Further down, the S2 support at $3,073 should ensure that Gold does not fall back below $3,000.
Fundamental Overview
With uncertainty building up towards this day, the announcement itself could be less impactful than initially thought, resulting in a sharp correction for Gold this week as a "buy the rumour, sell the news" event.
Meanwhile, traders are gearing up for the always-important private sector employment data provided by Automatic Data Processing (ADP). Although there is no proven correlation with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release on Friday, traders still see it as a litmus test. Expectations are for a surge of 105,000 new employment in private jobs in March, compared to 77,000 in February. This could make sense as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been trying to push public sector employees towards private jobs.
Daily digest market movers: The event just around the corner
The White House has been reluctant to provide details of the targets and scale of the levies, which will be applied right after they are rolled out at the 20:00 GMT event in Washington this Wednesday. The pending announcement has driven a new wave of volatility, including a US stock selloff. While uncertain times are generally good for Gold, investors are keen to see the impact of the next set of levies on trade, the global economy and geopolitics, Bloomberg reports.
The CME FedWatch tool sees chances for a rate cut in May standing at 15.8%. A rate cut in June is still the most plausible outcome, with only a 25.6% chance for rates to remain at current levels.
Huaan Yifu Gold ETF, the largest such investment vehicle in China, received record inflows of 1.4 billion Yuan ($194 million) on Monday. Followed by another 1 billion Yuan, the second-highest, on the following day. The frantic pace of buying means Gold ETFs now have the biggest assets under management among all commodity-related peers in China, Reuters reports.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Trade war fears lift Gold to new record high Premium
Gold gathered bullish momentum and surged to a new record high above $3,080 on Friday after struggling to find direction at the beginning of the week. The unveiling of the US reciprocal tariffs and key macroeconomic data releases from the US could drive Gold’s valuation in the near term.
Metals Big Picture
METALS BULLISH THEMES
METALS BEARISH THEMES
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD loses the grip and retests 1.0800
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair saw a bullish surge after the Trump administration announced tariffs that turned out to be less severe than many investors had anticipated, given President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariff threats over the last 72 days.
GBP/USD rises to test new highs, absorbs Trump tariffs in stride
GBP/USD stepped into fresh bids at six-month highs on Wednesday after the Trump administration unveiled tariffs that overall came in better than many investors had feared based on President Donald Trump’s cavalcade of tariff threats since taking up residence in the White House 72 days ago.
USD/JPY slumps to three-week low amid Trump's tariffs-inspired risk-off impulse
USD/JPY dives to a three-week low during the Asian session on Thursday as Trump's sweeping trade tariffs provide a strong boost to traditional safe-haven assets. The anti-risk flow triggers a steep decline in the US Treasury bond yields, which drags the USD back closer to a multi-month low touched in March.
Gold price hits fresh all-time peak in reaction to Trump's tariffs
Gold price spiked to a fresh record high on Thursday as investors grew increasingly concerned over the economic impact of Trump’s sweeping tariffs. This triggers a global risk-aversion trade and boosts the safe-haven bullion. Fed rate cut bets, declining US bond yields, and heavy USD selling benefits the non-yielding yellow metal.
WTI remains capped below $71.00 as Trump’s tariffs loom
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.95 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher amid supply worries after US President Donald Trump threatened Russia with oil tariffs.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 XAU/USD forecast!
2025 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2025, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that geopolitical developments and Donald Trump’s policies are expected to influence Gold price in 2025. XAU/USD could meet the first support area at $2,530-$2,500, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the October 2023 to November 2024 uptrend and the psychological level align. On the upside, $2,900 (upper limit of the ascending regression channel) could act as the next resistance in case Gold rises to a new record high. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
It’s not an easy task to assign a direction for Gold in 2025 with high certainty. There are simply too many unknowns. Once Trump’s foreign and economic policies take shape, Gold’s outlook will become less cloudy. A strong Chinese economy, ongoing policy-easing by major central banks and a tense geopolitical environment could trigger another leg higher in XAU/USD prices.
If Trump’s policies fuel inflation and weigh on the global economy, Gold could come under pressure. Additional losses could be seen in case the geopolitical atmosphere becomes more favorable for risk trade.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
