Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold Forecast and News
Gold flat lines above $2,600 ahead of holiday trading week
Gold price trades flat around $2,610 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Markets face a relatively quiet trading session ahead of the holiday trading week. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December is due later on Tuesday.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
From a technical point of view, XAU/USD could extend its slide in the upcoming sessions. The daily chart shows that it is pressuring its low and a bullish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA), trading around the latter for the first time since last February. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, have lost its directional strength above the current level, suggesting selling pressure remains. Finally, technical indicators head south within negative levels, although without a strong momentum. The pair may extend its slump should the near-term slide extend below $2,600.
The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has fallen below the 100 and 200 SMAs while it is currently battling around a bearish 20 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators are piercing their midlines with firmly downward slopes, albeit still near neutral levels.
Support levels: 2,604.20 2,591.70 2,582.90
Resistance levels: 2,617.55 2,632.00 2,645.20
Fundamental Overview
Spot Gold trades with a soft tone on Monday, although it's holding above $2,600 a troy ounce. The bright metal peaked early in Asia at $2,633.14 amid the broad US Dollar’s weakness, later easing on a souring mood backing demand for the American currency. Action, however, remains limited as investors gear up for the winter holidays. Most major markets will be closed in the upcoming days amid the Christmas celebration.
The poor performance of Wall Street is adding to the US Dollar's strength. Following some solid advances on Friday, the three major United States (US) indexes trade with a soft tone, with only the Nasdaq Composite posting a modest advance. An uptick in government bond yields further supports the Greenback. The 10-year Treasury note currently yields 4.56%, up roughly 4 basis points (bps).
Meanwhile, the US anticipated some macroeconomic releases scheduled for Tuesday as President Joe Biden issued an executive order closing the federal government on December 24. Durable Goods Orders fell 1.1% in November, worse than the 0.4% decline expected. Additionally, CB Consumer Confidence edged sharply lower in December, falling to 104.7 from 112.8 in November and missing the expected 112.9.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Is another record-setting year in the books in 2025? Premium
Gold benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward a looser monetary policy environment throughout 2024, setting a new all-time high at $2,790 and rising around 25% for the year.
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EUR/USD struggles to hold above 1.0400 as mood sours
EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades near 1.0400 following the earlier recovery attempt. The holiday mood kicked in, keeping action limited across the FX board, while a cautious risk mood helped the US Dollar hold its ground and forced the pair to stretch lower.
GBP/USD set to swoon on holiday-shortened week
GBP/USD waffled near the 1.2550 level on Monday, kicking off the holiday trading week with a third of a percent decline as market sentiment coils. Market volumes are set to drain out of global exchanges as investors broadly hang up their hats for the Christmas holiday, and global markets will be shuttered on Wednesday.
Japanese Yen retains intraday negative bias amid doubts over BoJ's rate-hike plan
The Japanese Yen struggles to capitalize on Friday’s modest recovery gains against the US Dollar. Doubts over BoJ’s rate hike plan and elevated US bond yields weigh on the lower-yielding JPY. Traders now look to the US Consumer Confidence Index for short-term impetus later this Monday.
Gold flat lines above $2,600 ahead of holiday trading week
Gold price trades flat around $2,610 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Markets face a relatively quiet trading session ahead of the holiday trading week. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December is due later on Tuesday.
Crude Oil goes nowhere with trading volumes already at lower levels
Oil prices are slipping lower by less than 0.50%, reversing after a positive Asian session earlier. Markets are roughly range trading in search of levels while final US data makes its way. The US Dollar Index has a fresh two-year high in reach after upbeat Durable Goods revisions.
Majors
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Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 XAU/USD forecast!
2024 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that Gold carries its bullish potential into early 2024 on prospects of a looser Fed policy, lower US bond yields and a weaker USD. A downturn in the global economy, however, could weigh on demand and limit the precious metal’s gains. A lack of progress in the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation, on the other hand, could cause XAU/USD to turn south. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR XAU/USD
The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the Israel-Hamas dispute in 2023 underscored Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times. Further escalation in the Middle East or a resurgence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may push Gold prices higher.
A potential re-election of former President Donald Trump could involve a 10% tariff on foreign goods and a four-year plan to reduce essential Chinese imports. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of lowering inflation to the 2% target and strain relations with China, negatively affecting Gold's demand outlook.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
