ECB’s de Guindos: All indicators on core inflation pointing in the right direction
|European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday that “all indicators on core inflation are pointing in the right direction.”
ECB (European Central Bank)
ECB trims its benchmark interest by 25 bps in October as widely anticipated
LATEST ECB MEASURES TO BATTLE INFLATION
ECB’s Villeroy: Expect more rate cuts
|European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bank of France President François Villeroy de Galhau shed light on the central bank’s policy move on Wednesday.
ECB’s Rehn: We see downside risks to growth
|This Tuesday, more comments are crossing the wires from European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn.
ECB latest analysis
ECB LATEST NEWS
October MEETING REVIEW
Breaking: ECB lowers benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.25% as expected
|The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it lowered key rates by 25 basis points (bps) following the October policy meeting, as expected. With this decision, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility stood at 3.4%, 3.65% and 3.25%, respectively.
September MEETING REVIEW
Breaking: ECB lowers benchmark interest rate by 25 bps as expected
|The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it lowered the interest rates on the marginal lending facility to 3.9% from 4.5% and the deposit facility, also known as the benchmark interest rate, by 25 basis points to 3.5%. The ECB also cut the interest rate on the main refinancing operations by 60 bps to 3.65%.
JULY MEETING REVIEW
Breaking: ECB leaves key rates unchanged in July as expected
|The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it left key rates unchanged following the July policy meeting, as expected. With this decision, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility stood at 4.25%, 4.5% and 3.75%, respectively.
June MEETING REVIEW
Breaking: ECB lowers key rates by 25 basis points as expected
|The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it lowered key rates by 25 basis points following the June policy meeting, as expected. With this decision, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations, the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility came down to 4.25%, 4.5% and 3.75%, respectively.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD struggles near 1.0550 amid dour mood
EUR/USD struggles near 1.0550 in the European morning on Thursday. The pair faces headwinds from risk-off flows due to rising geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine and worries over the potential US tariffs on the EU. ECB- and Fedspeak are awaited.
GBP/USD trades around 1.2650, upside potential seems limited
GBP/USD keeps its range near 1.2650 in early European trading on Thursday. The pair's sidetrend could be attributed to the softer US Dollar and a risk-aversion market environment. Traders stay cautious amid rife geopolitical tensions and a light economic calendar. Fedspeak eyed.
Gold price retains its bullish bias near one-week high amid rising geopolitical risks
Gold price maintains its bid tone heading into the European session and currently trades around the $2,660 level, or a one-and-half-week high touched earlier this Thursday. This marks the fourth straight day of a positive move and is sponsored by geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Russia-Ukraine war.
Shiba Inu holders withdraw 1.67 trillion SHIB tokens from exchange
Shiba Inu (SHIB) trades slightly higher, around $0.000024, on Thursday after declining more than 5% the previous week. SHIB’s on-chain metrics project a bullish outlook as holders accumulate recent dips, and dormant wallets are on the move, all pointing to a recovery in the cards.
Sticky UK services inflation to keep BoE cutting gradually
Services inflation is set to bounce around 5% into the winter, while headline CPI could get close to 3% in January. That reduces the chance of a rate cut in December, but in the spring, we think there is still a good chance the Bank of England will accelerate its easing cycle.
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Big Picture
what is the ECB?
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB’s mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro’s (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
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who is ECB's President?
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
How to trade the ECB interest-rate decision
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Prior to the rate decision:
- Many traders buy the rumors and square their positions shortly after the decision is made. For instance, if the market believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates, traders buy the Euro (EUR) and close the position shortly after the announcement. On the other hand, if the expectation is a rate cut, traders will short the Euro and square the position after the announcement.
After the rate decision:
- If the market’s expectations differ from the actual rate decision, there can be some excellent trading opportunities.
- If the market expects a rate hike but the European Central Bank ends up cutting rates, a short-term (1-2 hours) selling the Euro could be successful.
- If the market expects a rate cut but the ECB raises rates, a short-term long position on the Euro (1-2 hours) may be advantageous.
More generally, relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
Hike, cut or keep interest rates unchanged
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision on interest rates always has an effect on the Euro (EUR).
When interest rates increase, the European Central Bank is selling government securities to large financial firms. In turn, the financial organizations are paying in euros for these securities. This effectively decreases the amount of currency circulating in the economy. A decreasing supply leads to higher demand and therefore causes the value of the Euro to appreciate.
When the interest rates decrease, the European Central Bank floods the market with euros. This is done by purchasing government securities from financial organizations. In return for the securities, these banks and financial deals are paid in euros, therefore increasing the supply of euros in the economy. As supply increases, the value of the Euro depreciates.
the world interest rates table
The World Interest Rates Table reflects the current interest rates of the main countries around the world, set by their respective Central Banks. Rates typically reflect the health of individual economies, as in a perfect scenario, Central Banks tend to rise rates when the economy is growing and therefore instigate inflation.
some concepts you need to know
In practical terms, QE means that central banks create money out of nothing to buy securities, such as government bonds. This new money swells the size of bank reserves by the quantity of assets purchased and that’s why this programme is called Quantitative Easings. The money supply is intended to flood financial institutions with capital in an effort to stimulate lending and increase liquidity.
Much of the governments’ debt is held by banks in the Eurozone and the ECB wants them to give more credits. If the European Central Bank buys government bonds, their prices rise and profitability drop even more. This is a liquidity-providing operation that weakens the value of the euro. This depreciation makes European exports cheaper and competitive, and ultimately, helps in recovering. In addition, as a result of the stimulus to internal and external consumption, the ECB combats the risk of deflation, a widespread and prolonged drop in prices, as well as the high unemployment.
The long term refinancing operation (LTRO) is a cheap loan scheme for European banks that was announced by the European Central Bank towards the end of 2011 in a bid to help ease the eurozone crisis.
Round one was carried out on 21 December, when banks took €489 billion from the European Central Bank. The loans are due to be repaid within three years at a rate of 1%, and a second round will be launched on 28 February, with the results of how much money was requested due on 29 February.
As the eurozone crisis has escalated, banks have become less stable and have less money to lend. The objective of the LTRO is to boost cash flow in the market and avoid a severe credit crunch or collapse of the banking system.