GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD rises above 1.2650, looks to post weekly gains
GBP/USD regains its traction and trades above 1.2650 in the second half of the day on Friday. The data from the US showed that the S&P Global Services PMI dropped into the contraction territory below 50 in February, causing the US Dollar to lose strength and helping the pair edge higher.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart retreats toward 60 after rising slightly above 70 on Thursday, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact following a technical correction.
GBP/USD faces a pivot level at 1.2650 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest uptrend). If the pair manages to stabilize above this level and confirms it as support, 1.2700-1.2710 (round level, static level) could be seen as next resistance before 1.2750 (static level).
On the downside, 1.2600 (round level, static level) aligns as first support ahead of 1.2530 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.2500 (round level, static level).
Fundamental Overview
On Thursday, the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) helped GBP/USD push higher. Disappointing Jobless Claims data and falling US Treasury bond yields weighed on the USD.
The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported early Friday that Retail Sales rose by 1.7% on a monthly basis in January. This reading followed the 0.6% decline recorded in December and came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.3%.
Other data from the UK showed that the S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 in early February, suggesting that the business activity in the manufacturing sector contracted at an accelerating pace. On a positive note, the Services PMI improved to 51.1 from 50.9 in January. Nevertheless, these mixed data releases seem to be making it difficult for Pound Sterling to preserve its strength.
S&P Global will release the Manufacturing and Services PMI reports for the US later in the day. If either of the headline PMIs unexpectedly come in below 50 and point to a contraction, the initial market reaction could force the USD to come under renewed selling pressure and open the door for a leg higher in GBP/USD.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling sustains bullish potential Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) hit its highest in over two months against the US Dollar (USD) as GBP/USD buyers remained unstoppable on acceptance above the 1.2600 level.
GBP/USD Big Picture
GBP/USD Bullish Themes
GBP/USD BEARISH Themes
Latest GBP Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD recovers toward 1.0500 after mixed US PMI data
EUR/USD rebounds toward 1.0500 in the American session on Friday after the data from the US showed that the business activity in the private sector expanded at a softer pace than anticipated in early February. The pair remains on track to end the week with little changed.
GBP/USD rises above 1.2650, looks to post weekly gains
GBP/USD regains its traction and trades above 1.2650 in the second half of the day on Friday. The data from the US showed that the S&P Global Services PMI dropped into the contraction territory below 50 in February, causing the US Dollar to lose strength and helping the pair edge higher.
USD/JPY stalls the bounce below 150.50 after BoJ Ueda's speech
USD/JPY is stalling the rebound below 150.50 in the Asian session on Friday. Japan's core CPI rose to a 19-month high in January, reaffirming bets that the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates, underpin the Japanese Yen alongside BoJ Ueda's hawkish comments.
Gold holds above $2,930 as US yields edge lower
Gold holds above $2,930 after correcting from the record-high it set above $2,950 on Thursday. Following the mixed PMI data from the US, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.5% and allows XAU/USD to hold its ground.
WTI consolidates below mid-$72.00s; seems poised to register gains for the first time in five weeks
West Texas Intermediate US Crude Oil prices oscillate in a narrow trading range band during the Asian session on Friday and consolidate gains registered over the past four days. The commodity currently trades around the $72.40 region, below a one-week high touched on Thursday
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 GBP/USD forecast!
2025 GBP/USD FORECAST
In the GBP/USD Price Forecast 2025, our analyst, Dhwani Mehta, notes that the Pound Sterling (GBP) gears up for the global implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist policies and the path of monetary policies adopted on both sides of the Atlantic as 2025 unfolds. Contrasting economic outlooks on both sides of the Atlantic will likely cause the Fed and BoE policy divergence to stand out in the year ahead. Read more details about the forecast.
GBP/USD’s topping out its gradual recovery at two-and-a-half-year highs of 1.3434, and the ensuing downtrend carved out a rising wedge formation on the monthly time frame.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR GBP/USD
The US economy continued to show resilience, with the real GDP expanding at a solid 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, the BoE staff downgraded their economic forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024, now predicting no growth, compared with the 0.3% expansion predicted in its November report.
The BoE stood pat on its policy rate in December but “the split vote decision and the dovish tone of the Minutes suggest that a February (2025) interest rate cut remains very much in play, if not yet a done deal,” Suren Thiru said.
The impact of Trump’s tariffs on the UK is expected to be minimal. However, mounting tensions over a global tariff war and its spillover on the Euro area growth could sag confidence, having a rub-off effect on the British economy.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.
BOE Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.
Bailey on BOE'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound / Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.
Pound Sterling - US Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the US and the UK affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.