AUD/USD Forecast and News
AUD/USD faces pressure around 0.6400 ahead of flash US PMI
AUD/USD faces offers near 0.6400 ahead of the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for February. Investors see Trump’s tariff agenda as less fearful than anticipations. RBA’s Bullock support for maintaining a cautious interest rate cut stance.
Latest Australian Dollar News
AUD/USD Technical Overview
The AUD/USD pair faces selling pressure around 0.6400 in North American trading hours on Friday. The Aussie pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) trades firmly ahead of the release of the flash United States (US) S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 14:45 GMT.
Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to 106.75 after recovering from the Year-to-day (YTD) low of 106.30, which it posted on Thursday.
Flash PMI report is expected to show that the overall business activity expanded at a faster pace due to strong performance in manufacturing as well as the services sector. The Manufacturing and the Services PMI are estimated to have expanded at a faster pace to 51.5 and 53.0, respectively.
Upbeat private sector PMI data would indicate a strong economic outlook. Such a scenario would force Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to continue maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance.
However, the outlook of the US Dollar remains uncertain as investors expect US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda would be less fearful. Till now, the level of tariffs imposed by Trump is significantly lower than what he had vowed in the election campaign. Though Trump has proposed tariffs for a slew of items, investors expect his allies would manage to bargain with him and the impact on the global economy would be much lower than anticipated.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against its major peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), even though Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock reiterated his stance of maintaining caution on further monetary expansion. Bullock warned that the disinflation trend could stall if the RBA cuts interest rates too quickly.
On the economic data front, Australia’s Judo Bank Composite PMI expanded at a slightly faster pace to 51.2 from 51.1 in January. The Services PMI advanced to 51.4 from 51.2, while the. Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 from the former reading of 50.2.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUD/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Australian Dollar-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
AUD/USD Big Picture
AUD/USD Bullish Themes
AUD/USD Bearish Themes
Latest AUD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD recovers toward 1.0500 after mixed US PMI data
EUR/USD rebounds toward 1.0500 in the American session on Friday after the data from the US showed that the business activity in the private sector expanded at a softer pace than anticipated in early February. The pair remains on track to end the week with little changed.
GBP/USD rises above 1.2650, looks to post weekly gains
GBP/USD regains its traction and trades above 1.2650 in the second half of the day on Friday. The data from the US showed that the S&P Global Services PMI dropped into the contraction territory below 50 in February, causing the US Dollar to lose strength and helping the pair edge higher.
USD/JPY stalls the bounce below 150.50 after BoJ Ueda's speech
USD/JPY is stalling the rebound below 150.50 in the Asian session on Friday. Japan's core CPI rose to a 19-month high in January, reaffirming bets that the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates, underpin the Japanese Yen alongside BoJ Ueda's hawkish comments.
Gold holds above $2,930 as US yields edge lower
Gold holds above $2,930 after correcting from the record-high it set above $2,950 on Thursday. Following the mixed PMI data from the US, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.5% and allows XAU/USD to hold its ground.
WTI consolidates below mid-$72.00s; seems poised to register gains for the first time in five weeks
West Texas Intermediate US Crude Oil prices oscillate in a narrow trading range band during the Asian session on Friday and consolidate gains registered over the past four days. The commodity currently trades around the $72.40 region, below a one-week high touched on Thursday
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
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AUD/USD YEARLY FORECAST
What would happen to the AUD/USD this year? A brief update from our experts on where the AUD/USD can go in the upcoming months.
AUD/USD FORECAST 2025
The battle between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the US Dollar (USD) will be one worth watching in 2025, with central banks stealing the limelight. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept interest rates at record highs whilst most of its overseas counterparts started the loosening process. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), on the other hand, has trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 100 bps through 2024 and aims to slow the pace of cuts in 2025. The central banks’ imbalance aims for record lows in AUD/USD.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR AUD/USD
Beyond central banks, market players will be attentive to tariffs. The second coming of Donald Trump to the White House anticipates a global Trade War that could fuel inflationary pressures not only in the United States, but also in all major economies.
Given Trump’s personal battle with China, the Australian economy could end up benefiting from fresh commercial interactions with its neighbour giant.
About AUD/USD
AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'
The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUD/USD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD
The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Michele Bullock.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Michele Bullock
Michele Bullock is an Australian economist who is currently governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. She commenced as governor on 18 September 2023, and is the first woman to hold the role. She is Chair of the Reserve Bank Board, Payments System Board and Council of Financial Regulators. Prior to her current role, Ms Bullock was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Michele Bullock RBA's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).