Forex Forecast Polls
The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
Weekly Forecast
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EUR/USD: Buyers interest fades as trade-war concerns keep mounting Premium
The EUR/USD pair fell throughout the first half of the week, recovering in the second half to close it little changed at around 1.0480. The US Dollar (USD) benefited from the risk-averse environment, the latter resulting from the United States (US) President Donald Trump's tariffs plan.
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GBP/USD: Pound Sterling sustains bullish potential Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) hit its highest in over two months against the US Dollar (USD) as GBP/USD buyers remained unstoppable on acceptance above the 1.2600 level.
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Bitcoin: BTC demand and liquidity conditions remain weak
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000 since early February, hovering around $98,000 at the time of writing on Friday.
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Week ahead: Inflation and growth data in focus
The influence of the USD in the FX market is expected to remain unchanged in the coming week, maybe increase a bit as the release of the US PCE rates for January approaches next Friday. Yet given the unpredictability of US President Trump we expect US fundamentals to keep traders on the toes.
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AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
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Gold: Rally continues as Trump tariff concerns fuel arbitrage trade Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) regained bullish momentum and touched a new record high above $2,950 on Thursday before entering a consolidation phase. Nevertheless, the precious metal posted gains for the eighth consecutive week. Geopolitical and political headlines are likely to continue to drive Gold’s valuation in the near term.
WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?
The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.
- Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
- For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
- Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
- Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
- Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics
The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
WHY SHOULD I USE IT?
Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:
- A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
- No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
- A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions, rates table or live chart.
- Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
- A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
- A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
EUR/USD Forecast | GBP/USD Forecast | USD/JPY Forecast | AUD/USD Forecast |
USD/CAD Forecast | GBP/JPY Forecast | NZD/USD Forecast | EUR/JPY Forecast |