USD/CAD Forecast and News
USD/CAD tests 1.4400; next barrier appears near multi-year highs
The USD/CAD pair continues its upward trend for the third consecutive session, hovering around 1.4390 during Thursday’s Asian trading hours. Technically, the daily chart shows the pair moving within an ascending channel, suggesting a prevailing bullish outlook.
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EUR/USD hovers near 1.0400 as focus shifts to US data
EUR/USD trades listlessly near 1.0400 in the European session on Thursday. The pair stays defensive as US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the Eurozone. Further, ECB rate cut expectations also weigh on the major alongside fresh US Dollar demand ahead of US data.
GBP/USD turns lower to near 1.2300 as US Dollar stabilizes ahead of data
GBP/USD has come under renewed selling pressure and battles 1.2300 in the European trading hours on Thursday. The pair meets supply as the US Dollar stabilizes and traders digest US President Trump's tariff talks, gearing up for the mid-tier US economic data later in the day.
Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant amid positive risk tone; focus remains on BoJ
The Japanese Yen drifts lower for the second successive day against its American counterpart. A further recovery in the US bond yields underpins the USD and supports the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look to Trump’s speech for a fresh impetus ahead of the BoJ decision on Friday.
Gold price sticks to negative bias, remains close to multi-month peak set on Wednesday
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed through the first half of the European session on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to its highest level since early November touched the previous day.
WTI drops to near $75.00 due to uncertain potential impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs
WTI price depreciates due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs and energy policies. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose by 1 million barrels in the previous week. Trump threatened to impose "high levels" of sanctions and tariffs on Russian imports.
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USD/CAD YEARLY FORECAST
How could USD/CAD move this year? Our experts make a USD/CAD update forecasting the possible moves of the Canadian dollar (CAD) - US dollar (USD) pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 USD/CAD forecast!
USD/CAD FORECAST 2025
The BoC is likewise set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which will apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential. The BoC is under significant pressure to continue lowering interest rates. The Canadian Dollar is poised to continue falling in the first quarter. However, CAD investors will be looking to reassess the state of play between the Fed and the BoC heading into the middle quarters of the year. Read more details about the forecast.
2025 OUTLOOK FOR USD/CAD
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is having difficulty keeping his government on an even keel. Political turmoil at both home and abroad will threaten the Canadian Dollar heading into 2025.
With the CAD testing multi-year lows and sending the Dollar into the attic, momentum traders will be looking hungrily to collect into bullish CAD positions to force a downside correction with USD/CAD price action testing into overbought territory.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD
In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the pair are:
- Bank of Canada (BoC, Canada’s Central bank) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Tiff Macklem.
- Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers): Canada being a prominent oil and natural gas producer, the trade organization of that industry is very important.
In the USA, we have:
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Canadian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, we should highlight the Trade Account Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD/CAD. If a steady demand in exchange for CAD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CAD.
Inflation is another economic value that is important for this pair. It is measured among others by the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index). They are key indicators to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Tiff Macklem
Tiff Macklem was born in Montréal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 June 2020, for a seven-year term. He is the tenth governor of the Bank of Canada. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He currently chairs both, the BIS Audit Committee and the Consultative Council for the Americas.
Macklem on BOC'S Profile and Wikipedia
BOC NEWS & ANALYSIS
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About USD/CAD
THE 'LOONIE'
THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE LOONIE
Canada is commonly known as a resource based economy being a large producer and supplier of oil. The leading export market for Canada is by far the United States making its currency particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economical health.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST
- Commodities: as we already explained, oil is number one, but gold and natural gas are also to be taken into account by the traders.
- Currencies: JPY and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, an NZD/USD.
- Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bond).
- Indices: S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (the headline index for the Canadian equity market), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (index of global gold securities) and S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (benchmarks for related derivative products of Canadian economic sectors).