EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD hovers near 1.0400 as focus shifts to US data
EUR/USD trades listlessly near 1.0400 in the European session on Thursday. The pair stays defensive as US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the Eurozone. Further, ECB rate cut expectations also weigh on the major alongside fresh US Dollar demand ahead of US data.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreated below 60 on Thursday, pointing to a loss of bullish momentum. Nevertheless, while EUR/USD holds above 1.0390, where the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) meets the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend, technical sellers could refrain from betting on an extended slide.
On the upside, 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, 50-day SMA) aligns as strong resistance before 1.0500 (round level, Fibonacci 78.6% retracement). In case 1.0390 level fails, 1.0350 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.0320 (100-period SMA) could be seen as next support levels.
Fundamental Overview
EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in over a month above 1.0450 in the early American session on Wednesday but struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. After closing the day marginally lower, the pair trades in a tight channel near 1.0400 in the European morning on Thursday.
In the absence of high-tier data releases, the upbeat market sentiment helped EUR/USD hold its ground midweek. Rising US Treasury bond yields, however, supported the US Dollar and capped the pair's upside.
Later in the day, the US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Markets expect the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits to rise to 220,000 from 217,000 in the previous week. A reading below 210,000 could help the USD stay resilient against its rivals and cause EUR/USD to stretch lower. On the flip side, a print of 230,000 or higher could trigger a USD selloff and boost the pair in the second half of the day.
During the American trading hours, the European Commission will publish the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Confidence data for January, which is forecast to edge higher to -14.2 from -14.5 in December.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Trump round two and what it means for EUR/USD Premium
A hawkish Federal Reserve and a dovish ECB put pressure on EUR/USD. US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies set to overshadow macroeconomic releases. EUR/USD set to pierce the year low at 1.0177 and test parity in the upcoming days.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD hovers near 1.0400 as focus shifts to US data
EUR/USD trades listlessly near 1.0400 in the European session on Thursday. The pair stays defensive as US President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the Eurozone. Further, ECB rate cut expectations also weigh on the major alongside fresh US Dollar demand ahead of US data.
GBP/USD turns lower to near 1.2300 as US Dollar stabilizes ahead of data
GBP/USD has come under renewed selling pressure and battles 1.2300 in the European trading hours on Thursday. The pair meets supply as the US Dollar stabilizes and traders digest US President Trump's tariff talks, gearing up for the mid-tier US economic data later in the day.
Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant amid positive risk tone; focus remains on BoJ
The Japanese Yen drifts lower for the second successive day against its American counterpart. A further recovery in the US bond yields underpins the USD and supports the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look to Trump’s speech for a fresh impetus ahead of the BoJ decision on Friday.
Gold price sticks to negative bias, remains close to multi-month peak set on Wednesday
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains depressed through the first half of the European session on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to its highest level since early November touched the previous day.
WTI drops to near $75.00 due to uncertain potential impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs
WTI price depreciates due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of President Trump's proposed tariffs and energy policies. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose by 1 million barrels in the previous week. Trump threatened to impose "high levels" of sanctions and tariffs on Russian imports.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EURUSD 2025 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, says the EUR/USD pair is ending a third consecutive month in the red and technical readings in the monthly chart suggest 2025 will be a tough year for the Euro. The macroeconomic picture favors the USD over the EUR, as with even inflationary pressures, the focus will be on economic developments. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0334 and as high as 1.1214 throughout 2024, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
Generally speaking, a Republican victory is seen as positive for financial markets. Wall Street rallied, with the three major indexes hitting record levels amid Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services. Tariffs, if implemented, could mean higher prices for Americans in a wide spectrum of goods and services. Worth adding that his tariffs policy could also spread into other major economies.
The Fed signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025, projecting only two reductions as inflation remains above target and economic growth stays solid.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.