EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD recovers toward 1.0500 after mixed US PMI data
EUR/USD rebounds toward 1.0500 in the American session on Friday after the data from the US showed that the business activity in the private sector expanded at a softer pace than anticipated in early February. The pair remains on track to end the week with little changed.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 60, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact. On the upside, 1.0500-1.0510 (round level, Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as the first resistance area before 1.0550 (static level) and 1.0600 (beginning point of the downtrend).
In case EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0500-1.0510, buyers could hesitate. In this scenario, supports could be seen at 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement), 1.0390-1.0400 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), 50-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0375 (200-period SMA).
Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar (USD) came under heavy selling pressure. The pair holds steady at around 1.0500 in the European morning on Friday as investors await preliminary February Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data.
The USD Index, which tracks the USD's valuation against a basket of six major currencies, declined sharply on Thursday. The US Department of Labor reported that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219,000 from 214,000. Moreover, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield dropped below 4.5%, further weighing on the USD.
HCOB Composite PMI in Germany and the Eurozone are both forecast to come in above 50 in February's flash estimate and show an ongoing expansion in the private sector's business activity. In case one of these PMIs drop into the contraction territory below 50, the Euro could have a hard time finding demand.
In the second half of the day, S&P Global will publish the Manufacturing and Services PMI reports for the US. If the Services PMI comes in above the market expectation of 53, the USD could gather strength with the immediate reaction.
It's worth mentioning that Germany is preparing for a general election to the Bundestag, the lower house of its parliament, on February 23. Investors could opt to book their profits toward the end of the European session and trigger a leg lower in EUR/USD.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Buyers interest fades as trade-war concerns keep mounting Premium
The EUR/USD pair fell throughout the first half of the week, recovering in the second half to close it little changed at around 1.0480. The US Dollar (USD) benefited from the risk-averse environment, the latter resulting from the United States (US) President Donald Trump's tariffs plan.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD recovers toward 1.0500 after mixed US PMI data
EUR/USD rebounds toward 1.0500 in the American session on Friday after the data from the US showed that the business activity in the private sector expanded at a softer pace than anticipated in early February. The pair remains on track to end the week with little changed.
GBP/USD rises above 1.2650, looks to post weekly gains
GBP/USD regains its traction and trades above 1.2650 in the second half of the day on Friday. The data from the US showed that the S&P Global Services PMI dropped into the contraction territory below 50 in February, causing the US Dollar to lose strength and helping the pair edge higher.
USD/JPY stalls the bounce below 150.50 after BoJ Ueda's speech
USD/JPY is stalling the rebound below 150.50 in the Asian session on Friday. Japan's core CPI rose to a 19-month high in January, reaffirming bets that the BoJ will continue to raise interest rates, underpin the Japanese Yen alongside BoJ Ueda's hawkish comments.
Gold holds above $2,930 as US yields edge lower
Gold holds above $2,930 after correcting from the record-high it set above $2,950 on Thursday. Following the mixed PMI data from the US, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.5% and allows XAU/USD to hold its ground.
WTI consolidates below mid-$72.00s; seems poised to register gains for the first time in five weeks
West Texas Intermediate US Crude Oil prices oscillate in a narrow trading range band during the Asian session on Friday and consolidate gains registered over the past four days. The commodity currently trades around the $72.40 region, below a one-week high touched on Thursday
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2025
In the EURUSD 2025 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, says the EUR/USD pair is ending a third consecutive month in the red and technical readings in the monthly chart suggest 2025 will be a tough year for the Euro. The macroeconomic picture favors the USD over the EUR, as with even inflationary pressures, the focus will be on economic developments. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0334 and as high as 1.1214 throughout 2024, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2025 FOR EUR/USD
Generally speaking, a Republican victory is seen as positive for financial markets. Wall Street rallied, with the three major indexes hitting record levels amid Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services. Tariffs, if implemented, could mean higher prices for Americans in a wide spectrum of goods and services. Worth adding that his tariffs policy could also spread into other major economies.
The Fed signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts in 2025, projecting only two reductions as inflation remains above target and economic growth stays solid.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.